Smallest 12-Month Rise in Almost 10 Years

 

August 20, 2019

In July the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.7% from the month before. As in the two previous months, the gain was not really a sign of countrywide market vigour, since the 21-year average for the month is 1.0%. As in May and June, it was only because of seasonal pressure that the index rose at all. If this pressure were taken out by seasonal adjustment, the composite index would show retreats of 0.4% in May, 0.5% in June and 0.1% in July.

The unadjusted index was held down in July by a 1.0% decline in the Vancouver index, its 12th month without a rise. Vancouver was the only metropolitan area surveyed whose run of declines continued in July. Indexes for the other 10 markets of the composite index were all up on the month: Quebec City 0.1%, Edmonton 0.5%, Victoria 0.6%, Calgary 0.7%, Toronto 1.3%, Hamilton 1.3%, Halifax 1.6%, Montreal 1.7%, Ottawa-Gatineau 2.0% and Winnipeg 2.9%.

The recent weakness of indexes for several markets is reflected in the 12-month change in the composite index, which at +0.4% in July was the smallest since November 2009. That rise was pulled down by the three largest markets of Western Canada – Vancouver, down 6.2% from a year earlier, Calgary, down 3.1%, and Edmonton, down 2.8%. In the other two Western markets of the composite index, the 12-month gain was slight – Winnipeg 0.5%, Victoria 0.6%. Advances from a year earlier were larger for Quebec City (1.0%), Halifax (3.1%), Toronto (3.2%), Hamilton (5.1%), Montreal (5.8%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (6.0%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. Here the downtrend since last August noted in our previous reports is now a thing of the past. All of these indexes were up from the beginning of the year: Oshawa 2.6%, Guelph 4.0%, St. Catharines 4.1%, Barrie 4.9%, Kitchener 5.0%, Brantford 7.7% and Peterborough 8.7%.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe. The two in B.C. have been struggling recently – Abbotsford-Mission down 2.7% since the beginning of the year, Kelowna showing a rise only because of a strong gain in June. The five in Ontario have done better year to date – Sudbury up 4.8%, London 5.4%, Windsor 7.7%, Kingston 7.7% and Thunder Bay 10.5%.

For the full report including historical data, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca.